(Bloomberg) -- The rise in volatility has been very gradual amid a market slump that had one-day price action like there is no tomorrow. Meanwhile the VIX Index’s future curve isn’t suggesting lasting stress yet.
While the Cboe Volatility Index itself is about 10 points higher then it used to be about a month ago, the price difference in futures contracts that cover most of 2025 show a much less pronounced change in reading. That has caused the curve to go inverted, at backdrop that isn’t unusual in times of short-term market unrest.
The S&P 500 Index has slumped 9% from its February peak, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 sank 12% into a technical correction. The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index — which comprises the biggest beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence trade — has plunged 20% since a December high.
Equity volatility rose to nearly 30 points on Monday, a level last seen during the shock in August. However, contrary to the last two bigger spikes the move played out over 13 trading days instead of just one or two, suggesting that some hedges were already in place and the demand for optionality is somewhat limited to the front end. It’s also indicative of an absence of panic in the market.