Analysis-Markets are betting China will let yuan fall as Trump takes power, but not much
Financial markets are betting China will not use the yuan as a policy tool to offset expected U.S. tariffs in a second Donald Trump presidency, based on a view that sharp depreciation like that seen in his first term will be more harmful than helpful to the struggling economy. From the pricing of yuan forwards to interest rate derivatives and analysts' forecasts, indications are that China is already permitting a slow depreciation of the yuan to adjust to a broadly stronger dollar as it braces for Trump 2.0. But pricing also shows investors are expecting a gradual, moderate depreciation, with sell-side analysts seeing a 5-6% drop from current levels by year end.
