Investing.com -- With recession risks rising in the U.S., Southeast Asia’s economic outlook is increasingly influenced by shifts in global trade and commodity markets.
According to analysts at Bernstein, the differing business models and market exposures of Sea Ltd. (NYSE: SE ) and Grab Holdings (NASDAQ: GRAB ) create diverging risk profiles. If a downturn takes hold, Grab may be better positioned to weather the storm.
ASEAN’s dependence on global trade makes the region sensitive to external shocks. Countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are heavily export-driven, with export-to-GDP ratios ranging from 65% to over 170%. Vietnam is especially exposed to the U.S., with nearly 30% of GDP linked to American demand.
In contrast, Indonesia and the Philippines are more reliant on domestic consumption, providing some insulation.
But even these markets face second-order risks—particularly Indonesia, where falling commodity prices can drag on public finances and consumer demand.
Historical data from the global financial crisis shows that discretionary categories saw the sharpest pullbacks in ASEAN. E-commerce-type retail spending fell sharply, while food services and transport services were more stable.
Food services growth slowed from around 9–10% to 3%. Transport spending declined too, but mostly due to drops in vehicle purchases—less relevant to Grab’s core ride-hailing business.
Grab operates primarily in urban, higher-income economies like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, which contribute around 55% of its GMV.
These markets tend to maintain demand for essential services during downturns. Grab’s core offerings—transport and food delivery—are less discretionary, and its fintech exposure is limited to ecosystem financing for drivers and merchants.
Sea, on the other hand, is more exposed to mid- and lower-income economies, with Indonesia and the Philippines playing a larger role.
Only about 25% of its e-commerce GMV comes from high-income markets. Sea’s focus on digital financial services and consumer lending in price-sensitive segments also increases its vulnerability if credit tightens or delinquencies rise.
Trade friction with the U.S. could amplify macro risks. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand—all key markets for Sea—have substantial surpluses and export dependence on the U.S., raising exposure to tariffs. Vietnam, in particular, has faced higher reciprocal tariffs.
Meanwhile, lower commodity prices may weigh on Indonesia and Malaysia, where export earnings and fiscal health rely heavily on oil, coal, palm oil, and rubber. Grab has meaningful exposure to these economies, but its revenue is less tied to commodity flows.