Investing.com -- U.S. export tariffs on China are renewing investor concerns over macro risks. Bernstein has analysed which Chinese internet companies can best weather a slowdown.

The brokerage models how Trip.com, Tencent Music, and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU ) would fare in the event of a 1% decline in China’s GDP growth.

Trip.com and Tencent Music showed greater resiliency, each seeing about a 1.5% reduction in revenue under the simulated downturn. Baidu, however, faced a sharper 3% hit, the brokerage said.

Bernstein attributes Trip.com’s resilience to long-term secular tailwinds in domestic travel and growing digital penetration in the online travel agency (OTA) sector.

Even in prior economic downturns, trip volumes continued to rise as consumers downtraded within travel but maintained their intent to travel, the analysts said.

A 1% GDP hit would likely drive down outbound travel by 5% and hotel growth by 2%, but domestic substitution helps cushion the blow, Bernstein wrote, cutting FY growth expectations for Trip.com from 16% to 14%.

Tencent Music benefits from a sticky premium user base and recurring revenue from music streaming subscriptions, Bernstein said. While a macro slowdown may prompt promotions and ARPU pressure for select cohorts, the company can limit the impact by targeting discounts to specific user segments.

That approach could limit revenue downside to roughly 1.7%, Bernstein estimated.

Baidu’s ad-heavy business, particularly in cyclical segments like ecommerce and autos, makes it more vulnerable to macro shocks, with no secular growth offsets or pricing power to fall back on.

Search remains exposed to economically sensitive categories and lacks the lock-in benefits seen elsewhere, the analysts said.

Bernstein names Trip.com its top pick, citing undemanding valuation at 13x forward P/E and structural growth drivers that remain intact.

Tencent Music is also favored as a stable earnings story, though Bernstein sees its valuation as fair. Baidu, in contrast, may face further downside from macro risks that threaten to derail its AI monetization narrative, the firm warned.