• October 5, 2024

Economists Weigh in on U.S. Employment Report and Fed's Inflation Battle

According to PANews, Allianz Chief Economist Mohamed El-Erian has issued a warning that not all investors are optimistic about the upcoming employment report set to be released on Friday. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is far from over. El-Erian noted that while the labor market appears robust on the surface, it is actually in a late-cycle phase, which could pose challenges ahead. Lindsey Bell, Chief Investment Strategist at 248 Ventures, echoed these concerns, stating that the wage growth reflected in the report might serve as a reminder to the Federal Reserve that inflation remains persistent. Bell's comments suggest that the Fed may need to remain vigilant in its efforts to control inflation despite a seemingly strong labor market. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the latest U.S. non-farm employment report as 'excellent' and expressed confidence that similar data in the future would bolster his belief that the economy is achieving full employment with low inflation. Goolsbee also indicated that it would be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates over the next 12 to 18 months, aligning with the current expectations of most policymakers. This perspective highlights a cautious optimism among some Fed officials regarding the balance between employment and inflation. The mixed views among economists and Fed officials underscore the complexity of the current economic landscape, where strong employment figures coexist with ongoing inflationary pressures. As the Federal Reserve navigates these challenges, the upcoming employment report will be closely watched for further insights into the health of the U.S. economy and the potential direction of monetary policy.

  • October 5, 2024

Fed Officials' Speeches and Key Economic Data to Watch This Week

According to PANews, the upcoming week will see a flurry of activity from Federal Reserve officials, with numerous speeches and key economic data releases that could influence the pace of interest rate adjustments. Investors will be closely monitoring the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data for September. Here are the main macroeconomic events to watch this week:On Tuesday at 1:05 UTC+8, Neel Kashkari, the 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, will participate in a Q&A session at the Bank Holding Company Association's fall seminar. At 6:00 UTC+8, Raphael Bostic, the 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the Atlanta Fed, will deliver a speech. At 6:30 UTC+8, James Bullard, the 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the St. Louis Fed, will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. At 15:00 UTC+8, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at a European Central Bank event.On Wednesday at 0:45 UTC+8, Raphael Bostic will again address the economic outlook. At 4:00 UTC+8, Susan Collins, the 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Boston Fed, will speak at a community banking conference. At 20:00 UTC+8, Bostic will deliver welcome remarks at another event. At 21:15 UTC+8, Lorie Logan, the 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Dallas Fed, will discuss the current economic situation. At 22:30 UTC+8, Austan Goolsbee, the 2025 FOMC voting member and President of the Chicago Fed, will give opening remarks at the Chicago Payments Symposium.On Thursday at 0:15 UTC+8, Thomas Barkin, the 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the Richmond Fed, will speak. At 2:00 UTC+8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. At 5:00 UTC+8, Susan Collins will speak again. At 6:00 UTC+8, Mary Daly, the 2024 FOMC voting member and President of the San Francisco Fed, will deliver a speech. At 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. September CPI year-over-year and month-over-month data will be released, along with the initial jobless claims for the week ending October 5. At 22:30 UTC+8, Thomas Barkin will participate in a fireside chat. At 23:00 UTC+8, John Williams, the permanent FOMC voting member and President of the New York Fed, will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy.On Friday at 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. September PPI year-over-year and month-over-month data will be released. At 21:45 UTC+8, Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will attend the 18th Annual Community Bankers Symposium. At 22:00 UTC+8, the preliminary October one-year inflation rate expectations and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published. At 22:45 UTC+8, Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion.

  • October 5, 2024

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Praises Latest Nonfarm Payrolls Report, Signals Potential Rate Cuts

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee has described the recent U.S. nonfarm payrolls report as "excellent" and expressed optimism that more similar data would confirm the economy's move towards full employment with low inflation. Goolsbee also pointed out that the resolution of the port strike is positive news for the economy, adding to his confidence in current economic stability.However, Goolsbee acknowledged that broader indicators suggest a cooling labor market and potential for inflation to dip below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. He suggested that, with interest rates currently above the "steady state" level, "substantial" rate cuts may be justified over the next 12 to 18 months, in line with expectations from many policymakers.