According to BlockBeats, on September 7, White House economic advisor Boushey stated that the latest employment report indicates the U.S. economy continues to progress. Boushey noted signs of stable economic growth in the country.Despite revisions, the labor market still appears healthy, reflecting ongoing economic stability.
According to BlockBeats, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised the non-farm employment numbers for June and July. The June non-farm employment increase has been adjusted from 179,000 to 118,000, while the July figures have been revised from 114,000 to 89,000. These revisions indicate a combined decrease of 86,000 jobs for the two months compared to the initial estimates.
According to BlockBeats, on September 6, Morgan Stanley's sales and trading department indicated that the accumulation of positions and significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions could lead to substantial market volatility triggered by employment data.Morgan Stanley sales and trading experts, including Amanda Levenberg Goldsmith, stated that stock options suggest Friday's employment report will cause significant market movements. They added that such pricing is reasonable because the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions in two weeks is unprecedented, at least in this cycle.The implied volatility of the S&P 500 index remains lower than the actual volatility, indicating that the stock market is becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic data. Morgan Stanley's sales and trading department noted that options imply the S&P 500 index will fluctuate by 1.1% in either direction on Friday, while ETFs tracking the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq 100 indices suggest fluctuations of 1.84% and 1.37%, respectively.
According to Odaily, Friday marks the last day before the Federal Reserve officials enter their pre-meeting silence period. Federal Reserve's Williams and Governor Waller are scheduled to speak after the release of the employment report, providing the final opportunity to set expectations for the upcoming meeting. With economic growth and inflation slowing, adjusting the interest rate from the current 5.3% to around 4.5% seems more reasonable. If there are no signs that July's weak employment will continue into August, some Fed officials may resist a significant rate cut of 50 basis points. However, officials who were open to a rate cut at the July meeting might support a 50 basis point cut in September if the unemployment rate rises again and job growth further slows.
According to Odaily, Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee has stated that recent economic data supports the possibility of multiple interest rate cuts. Goolsbee also noted an increase in warning signals related to the labor market.
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