• October 23, 2024

Are Stocks Offering “Return-Free Risk”?

Stock investors are getting a bad deal today … we’re nearing a negative equity risk premium … bets that yields will climb … election risk is rising The S&P 500 is up 21% so far in 2024. But this fantastic performance has shifted the risk/reward profile of investing new money at today’s prices. In fact, investors are accepting an absurd amount of risk when they buy the average stock today. But don’t take my word for it. Let’s go over a few numbers together and you decide.InvestorPlace - Stock Mar

  • October 23, 2024

Surge in Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Warns of Rising Bond Risks

(Bloomberg) -- The US Treasury market, already mired in one of its worst losing stretches of the year, is flashing a fresh warning sign of mounting risks as yields surge.Most Read from BloombergClimate Change Is Killing Buildings in Slow MotionOman Sees an Urban Future Distinct From Dubai and Abu DhabiTransportation Policy Gets Left Behind in Presidential RaceHow Kyiv Became a Leader in Digital Services Amid Wartime StrainDhaka's Revolutionary Makeover Pits Visions of Peace Against VengeanceThe

  • October 22, 2024

Dollar hits to 2-1/2-month peak as US rates, election eyed

The U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 2-1/2-month high on Tuesday, continuing its recent ascent on expectations the Federal Reserve will temper its interest rate cut path, while investors positioned ahead of an apparently tight U.S. presidential election. The greenback has risen for three straight weeks and is on track for its 15th gain in 17 sessions as a run of positive economic data has diminished expectations about the size and speed of rate cuts from the Fed, which has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached 4.222% on Tuesday, its highest since July 26.

  • October 19, 2024

What a soft landing would mean for the US Treasury market

A soft landing for the U.S. economy could have serious implications for the Treasury market, as per analysts at BCA Research. In the note, the analysts say that with recent positive economic data pushing the 10-year Treasury yield into what they define as the “Soft Landing Zone,” investors may see stabilization in yields even as the economy avoids recession. As BCA’s analysts note, in such a scenario, the Fed's easing of monetary policy would continue, but without a full-blown recession requiring aggressive cuts.