The indexes continue to be news-driven, reflected in the fear index ( VIX ) and Gold . Overall, neutral short term to risk-off intermediate to longer term.

Risk On

• Volume patterns improved this week, with one of the highest volume days ever on the explosive Wednesday rally. (+)
• Sector rotation is showing 12 of 14 sectors up, with semiconductors and technology leading with many tech stocks having a bullish engulfing pattern.
• The number of stocks above key moving averages bounced off its extreme oversold levels, and it looks like they could trend higher. (+)

Neutral

• Market volatility remains elevated, with a violent rally off the lows Wednesday (largest 1-day gain in S&P history). Short-term, we could continue to see a rally to the 200-Day Moving Average, though the tariff situation remains very unclear and prone to news-driven moves and the S&P 500 may be moving into a bearish phase. (=)
• The risk gauges are closer to neutral with the improvement in SPY / TLT ) and HYG /TLT ratios. (=)
• Volatility, after matching its August 2024 highs, backed off. A new high in volatility would be alarming. (=)
• Value’s recent outperformance flipped back in favor of Growth over the short run, but the longer-term trend remains intact. (=)
• Foreign equities continued to lead the U.S. over the last several months and are about even in the last couple of weeks. All equity markets remain under pressure. (=)
• April is usually a reasonably strong month for equities seasonally, though they are lagging this year with the tariff disruptions. (=)

Risk Off

• Contrary to the bullish leadership this week in Technology and Semiconductors , Gold made new highs and gold miners exploded up +20% this week, a concerning signal given all the pressure in equities. Looking at 3-month returns, gold miners, staples and utilities were all positive, a clear risk-off signal. (-)
• Despite the huge rally, the McClellan Oscilator is still negative. (-)
• The 52-week new high new low ratio remains negative, though it is flattening out at low levels. (-)
• The color charts, with the exception of the Nasdaq on the shortest-term reading, are all negative. (-)
• All members of the modern family are in bearish phases, with two members ( IBB and KRE ) actually negative on an otherwise strong bounce-back week for the market. All of them with the exception of retail are underperforming the S&P. Regional banks and financial sector were weak, a concern with the dollar under pressure and potential changes to global finance and economic activity. (-)
• Soft commodities are outperforming equities. (-)
• Parabolic move in gold, reaching overbought levels. The trend is strong, but the risk on a mean reversion pullback is elevated. (-)
• The dollar broke below its 200-weekly moving average for the first time in several years. A falling dollar poses a risk to markets. Bitcoin continues to hold and outperform the market and raises questions about its roll relative to the dollar and foreign currencies. (+)