• European futures hint at a weak open, despite Asian stocks rising.
• President Trump’s potential adjustments to auto tariffs are causing market instability and investor nervousness.
• Gold prices remain high, with potential for further gains.
• The US Dollar Index shows signs of potential rebound, but uncertainty remains due to tariffs.

Markets weekly outlook - Tariff rollercoaster continues, ECB rate decision and inflation data in focus

Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, but futures hint at US market weakness as President Donald Trump hinted at possible exceptions to auto-related tariffs.

On Monday, Trump said he might adjust the 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts from countries like Mexico and Canada. These tariffs could make cars thousands of dollars more expensive, but Trump said car companies need some time to start manufacturing vehicles in the U.S.

Markets are stabilizing as the tech exemptions have given hope for possible negotiations after the president’s tariffs earlier this month caused global stocks to lose $10 trillion and triggered a sell-off in US Treasuries. However, the constant changes are making investors nervous, and business leaders, like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, have warned that Trump’s attempt to change global trade rules could lead to a US recession.

U.S. Treasury bonds stabilized overnight after last week’s big sell-off, while the dollar continued losing popularity with investors.

Australia’s central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates further, saying May would be a good time to review its policies. This was mentioned in the minutes of its April meeting released in the Asian session. The April meeting was held just before President Trump’s tariffs disrupted global markets.

Gold prices continue to hold the high ground having seen a brief pullback yesterday met with renewed buying pressure. For a full breakdown on Gold, read: Gold price update: is price action pointing toward fresh highs? $3250 loading….?

Chart of The Day - US Dollar Index

From a technical standpoint, the US Dollar Index selloff could be running out of steam.

Yesterday’s failure by bears to print a fresh low and a daily candle close back above support may hint at the potential for a US Dollar rebound.

The 14-period RSI is eyeing a break back above the oversold 30 handle which could be seen as a sign of changing momentum.

A bullish move would be intriguing as the index will likely test the psychological 100 level, with acceptance needed if a sustained USD recovery is to take place.

The tariff shadow and uncertainty however, mean that such a recovery may struggle to gain traction just yet.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, April 15, 2025

Support

• 99.56
• 99.00
• 97.70

Resistance

• 100.00
• 100.61
• 101.18

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