The Federal Reserve finally seems to think it has corralled the high inflation of the last three years. So why are the two presidential candidates threatening to unleash it all over again?
Neither Republican Donald Trump nor Democrat Kamala Harris is overtly calling for higher inflation, needless to say. But each is proposing major policies that would be inflationary.
“Trump policies on trade, tariffs, tax, and immigration could increase inflationary concerns,” analysts at investing firm Raymond James wrote in a recent research note. As for Harris’s plans, “historically, subsidies for housing and price caps have created unintended consequences and exacerbated inflationary concerns.”
Each of those policies is meant to win a bloc of voters by appealing to particular concerns. What the candidates don’t tell voters is that those plans could have some unpleasant side effects if they were to ever be fully enacted.
Trump, for instance, wants to hit all imports from China with a new 60% tariff and most other imports with a 20% tariff. Trump’s idea is to make foreign goods more expensive so that domestic producers will be more cost-competitive and sell more stuff made in America.
But that tax on goods would amount to a price hike largely borne by American consumers. The added cost would total around $2,600 per year for the typical family, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics . That $2,600 annual hit would be far more than food inflation has cost shoppers during the last three years.