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Market Analysis

Do Money Supply, Deficit and QE Create Inflation?
  • January 25, 2025

Do Money Supply, Deficit and QE Create Inflation?

I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation....

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Markets Weekly Outlook – Fed to Extend Pause as Trump Era Begins
  • January 24, 2025

Markets Weekly Outlook – Fed to Extend Pause as Trump Era Begins

Markets had a bit of a roller coaster ride this week thanks to the incoming Trump administration in the US. Markets got some of what they expected while they also received a fair amount of shocks to...

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US Stock Market Performance: Exceptionalism or Exaggeration?
  • January 24, 2025

US Stock Market Performance: Exceptionalism or Exaggeration?

The past year brought once again exceptional returns to U.S. large cap stocks while most bond classes and global stocks had a lackluster year. With an average post WWII annual return of +10.1%, the...

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Week Ahead: Fed, BoC and ECB Meet Amid Trump Tariff Threats
  • January 24, 2025

Week Ahead: Fed, BoC and ECB Meet Amid Trump Tariff Threats

Three central bank decisions awaited as tariff reality sets in. Fed set to go on pause, ECB and BoC to likely cut again. But US GDP and PCE inflation could steal the limelight. Australian CPI and...

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GBP/USD Analysis: Key Resistance at 1.244, Breakout or Continued Downtrend?
  • January 24, 2025

GBP/USD Analysis: Key Resistance at 1.244, Breakout or Continued Downtrend?

The GBP/USD (Cable) has been rebounding from recent lows over the past several days and is now testing the descending channel’s trendline resistance at 1.2440—a critical pivot level for the pair. A...

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  • January 24, 2025

Week Ahead: FOMC, ECB, BoC, US PCE, EZ GDP, Tokyo and Australian CPI

MON: Chinese Industrial Profit (Dec), German Ifo (Jan), US New Home Sales (Dec) TUE: ECB BLS (Q1); US Durable Goods (Dec), Richmond Fed (Jan), Tech Earnings WED: FOMC, Riksbank, BoC & BCB...

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Trump’s Push on Oil and Rates Faces a Losing Battle
  • January 24, 2025

Trump’s Push on Oil and Rates Faces a Losing Battle

In President Trump’s first week in office, he issued a blitz of executive orders, but perhaps his most ambitious statement to date is his claim yesterday that he would order the Federal Reserve to...

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US Dollar Slides After Trump Urges Central Banks to Lower Rates
  • January 24, 2025

US Dollar Slides After Trump Urges Central Banks to Lower Rates

Aussie and Kiwi gain as Trump softens his stance on China. Yen rallies after BoJ raises rates and revises inflation forecasts. S&P 500 hits a new record, and gold keeps marching north. The US...

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  • January 23, 2025

Gold Prices Near All-Time High Amid Trump's Trade Policy Focus

Gold Is on the Way to an All-Time High The market's focus on the broader implications of President Donald Trump's trade policies kept gold (XAU/USD) prices hovering near a three-month high...

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  • January 23, 2025

Pelosi Bets Big on AI: This Is What You Need to Know

The latest filings show Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), the most active large investor in the U.S. Congress, betting big on AI. Her latest trades include significant new positions in Google...

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