By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Emma Rumney

COPENHAGEN/LONDON (Reuters) - Danish brewer Carlsberg (CSE: CARLb ) reported on Tuesday a "solid" start to the year in China but warned that U.S. tariffs could affect both consumer spending and raw material costs going forward.

Carlsberg, the world’s third largest brewer behind Anheuser-Busch InBev (EBR: ABI ) and Heineken (AS: HEIN ), maintained its outlook for the full year despite reporting first-quarter sales slightly below expectation.

The company had not yet seen a deterioration in consumer behaviour in April, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs, CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told Reuters by phone.

"But history tells us that prolonged uncertainty will feed into consumers’ purchasing decisions," he said.

Carlsberg has little direct exposure to Trump’s tariffs on U.S. imports, as the United States only accounts for a small fraction of its overall sales.

However, businesses have warned of aftershocks that could dent consumer confidence globally, stir inflation, and raise the costs of materials.

Carlsberg’s business units were strategising around the possible impact on prices of raw materials like barley, sugar and aluminium, which could rise or fall in different regions as a result of the tariffs, Aarup-Andersen said.

While no company was entirely protected from tariffs, Carlsberg represents a relatively safe harbour for investors thanks to its minimal U.S. exposure, said Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen, analyst at Jyske Bank.

"They may be a bit of a winner," he said.

Carlsberg said it still expects between 1% and 5% growth in organic operating profit for the current year.

It’s shares, which have risen 30% since the start of the year, were trading 1.9% lower at 0726 GMT.

Global sales in the first three months of the year rose 17% from the same period of 2024 to 20.12 billion Danish crowns ($3.07 billion), compared with the 20.4 billion forecast by analysts in a poll gathered by the company.

Volumes in China, Carlsberg’s biggest market, grew 2% driven by its premium portfolio and sales in big cities.

However, sales of local mainstream brands in the western part of the country were hit by weak consumer sentiment, it said.

The Chinese beer market contracted 4% last year, with a further estimated low-single-digit percentage decline in the first three months of this year, Carlsberg said.

Aarup-Andersen said Carlsberg expected consumers in China to remain subdued, but demand would improve slightly from last year.

($1 = 6.5565 Danish crowns)