According to BlockBeats, on October 17, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde released the latest data indicating that economic growth is expected to weaken further. The survey also shows a slowdown in employment growth.Inflation is projected to decrease to the target level by next year. The risks to economic growth are skewed to the downside.
According to Odaily, U.S. retail sales in September saw a slight increase, surpassing expectations and supporting the view of strong economic growth in the third quarter. The monthly retail sales rate for September recorded a 0.4% increase, compared to an unrevised 0.1% rise in August. While these signs of economic recovery may not prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again next month, they do reinforce the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut.
Gold prices rise amid fears Trump might win US elections.
According to Odaily, analysts have indicated that the recent European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision did not present any surprises. They suggest that if inflation and PMI data for October and November continue to decline unexpectedly, a 50 basis point rate cut could be possible at the next meeting in December. Given that this rate cut and additional cuts (five more by the end of next year) have already been factored into European stock markets, the current earnings season is more likely to dominate market trends.
According to Odaily, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending October 12 was 241,000, which is lower than the expected 260,000. The previous week's figure was revised from 258,000 to 260,000. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims for the same period was 236,250, up from the previously revised 231,500, which was initially reported as 231,000. Additionally, the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending October 12 was 1.867 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.865 million. The previous week's figure was revised from 1.861 million to 1.858 million.
According to Odaily, the European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced its deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, aligning with market expectations. Additionally, the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate have been adjusted from 3.65% and 3.9% to 3.4% and 3.65%, respectively. Traders' bets on further rate cuts by the ECB remain steady, with a 25 basis point reduction anticipated in December.
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According to Odaily, James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, has indicated that the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates by 50 basis points for the remainder of this year. Knightley explained that the Fed's current approach is focused on risk management. Unlike most central banks that have a single objective of reducing inflation to 2%, the Federal Reserve has two primary goals: price stability and full employment. If the Fed is confident in achieving its inflation target, it may shift its focus to supporting employment.Knightley suggested that a 25 basis point rate cut in November, followed by another cut in December, would be very appropriate. He also predicted that the Federal Reserve might lower rates to around 3%-3.5% by the summer of 2025.
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