Gold Retreats From Its Highs
Gold ( XAU/USD ) broke a record high of $3,500 last week. However, due to a stronger US dollar (USD) and easing tensions between the US and China, it lost all the gains and closed on Friday down by 1.5% at $3,282.
China announced tariff exemptions for select US imports, easing some pressure from its 125% duties. However, China’s officials have excluded the possibility of resuming trade negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration. The developments weighed down on gold prices by making US dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies.
"The apparent detente on tariffs is negatively affecting gold prices... But so far we’ve not seen substantial liquidations", said TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali. ’However, we know that they’ve continued to buy the dip over the last few sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory", he added.
Market participants are now focusing on several critical US economic releases scheduled this week: the initial estimate of Q1 Gross Domestic Product Growth, Personal Consumption Expenditures ( PCE ) inflation report, and employment data . The data is expected to provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s potential monetary policy trajectory and the broader economic outlook.
XAU/USD fell by 0.79% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the calendar is relatively uneventful. Still, traders should continue to monitor any developments around global trade tariffs. If the Trump administration’s rhetoric continues to threaten China, XAU/USD will continue climbing towards new highs. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,370 and support at $3,280.
Euro Remains in Bearish Trend
Last Friday, the euro ( EUR/USD ) weakened amid the strengthening of the US dollar (USD).
"The uncertainty itself is at least as damaging as the tariffs themselves, hurting the US economy at least as much as the rest of the world", said Christian Keller, head of economics research at Barclays.
"Even if the ongoing earnings season still shows robust numbers, many companies will likely prepare to hunker down until visibility improves", he warned. "This makes a recession increasingly likely".
This week’s consumer price data for Germany and the eurozone are projected to show a continued moderation in headline inflation. A further easing in price pressures would increase the chances that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement an additional rate cut at its June meeting. Investors will scrutinise the data closely to assess the extent of disinflationary trends and their potential impact on the ECB’s monetary policy path. Particularly, it will hint at how the central bank will seek balance to support growth while maintaining price stability.
EUR/USD remained unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although the official macroeconomic calendar is uneventful, traders should watch any news regarding global trade tariffs. Further tariff retaliation from Chinese authorities could trigger a significant upward rally in EUR/USD. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14000 and support at 1.13000.
Japanese Economy Shows Signs of Growth
On Friday, the Japanese yen ( USD/JPY ) rose by over 0.7% against the US dollar (USD).
The strengthening comes ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on 5 May, where the regulator is expected to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. The anticipated decision reflects the regulator’s cautious approach amid persistent inflation and external economic risks, including uncertainty related to US tariff policy. BoJ Governor Kazu Ueda emphasised that further steps to tighten monetary policy will depend on inflation and economic growth dynamics. Japan’s annual inflation rate fell from 3.7% towards 3.6% in March, the lowest since November last year. That exceeded the central bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive year.
"The strengthening has been driven partly by repatriation flows as Japanese institutions have sold foreign assets and brought capital home", writes Udith Sikand, senior analyst at Gavekal.
"In short, the increasingly strong impression among investors that the age of American exceptionalism is over is generating capital flows into the yen", Sikand added. "This suggests that yen strength is here to stay", he concluded.
USD/JPY rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. This week, the market expects the release of important US economic data, including employment data and preliminary gross domestic product figures for Q1. Better-than-expected figures may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep high interest rates, weakening the Japanese yen and triggering volatility in USD pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 144.000 and support at 143.500.