• October 9, 2024

Fed September minutes may show whether 50 bps rate cut was a slam dunk or a hard sell

Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's half-a-percentage-point rate cut last month, to be released on Wednesday, may provide a final word on just how divided policymakers were over a decision that took many economists by surprise and sparked the first dissent from a member of the Board of Governors in 19 years. Fed chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference said there was "broad support" for the half-point cut, with even dissenting Governor Michelle Bowman agreeing it was time to ease monetary policy but preferring to start with a smaller quarter-point reduction as a hedge against inflation risks she is not convinced have been fully tamed. Yet Powell also acknowledged a "good diversity of excellent discussion" about the decision, while projections issued by Fed policymakers about what would happen over just the next three months were unusually dispersed.

  • October 9, 2024

US bank profits to shrink on interest income, focus shifts to Fed cuts

NEW YORK (Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo kick off earnings for the sector on Friday, and investors are expected to focus on the big banks' forecasts for net interest income after strong jobs data fueled uncertainty about the path of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Both banks are expected to report lower profits for the third quarter after interest income may shrink while loan demand remained subdued. The sector reaped a windfall in net interest income (NII), or the difference between what they earn on loans and pay out for deposits, in recent years as the Fed raised rates.

  • October 9, 2024

Dollar Set for Best Run of Gains Since 2022 as Fed Cut Bets Fade

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar is on track for its best run in more than two years as US economic resilience forces traders once again to rethink their bets for more aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. Most Read from BloombergUrban Heat Stress Is Another Disparity in the World’s Most Unequal NationFrom Cleveland to Chicago, NFL Teams Dream of Domed StadiumsSingapore Ends 181 Years of Horse Racing to Make Way for HomesChicago’s $1 Billion Budget Hole Exacerbated by School TurmoilShould Evic

  • October 9, 2024

Federal Flood Maps Are No Match for Florida’s Double Hurricane

(Bloomberg) -- Even before the second megastorm in as many weeks brings devastating floodwaters to the Southeast US, it’s already clear that federal flood-risk maps underpinning decisions by millions of American homeowners and businesses are severely out of sync with a new era of climate-intensified disasters. Most Read from BloombergUrban Heat Stress Is Another Disparity in the World’s Most Unequal NationFrom Cleveland to Chicago, NFL Teams Dream of Domed StadiumsSingapore Ends 181 Years of Hor

  • October 9, 2024

Geopolitical strife could cost global economy $14.5 trln over 5 years -Lloyd's of London

LONDON (Reuters) -The global economy could face losses of $14.5 trillion over a five-year period from a hypothetical geopolitical conflict which hits supply chains, insurance market Lloyd's of London said on Wednesday. The economic impact would result from severe damage to infrastructure in the conflict region and the potential for compromised shipping lanes, Lloyd's said in a statement. "With more than 80% of the world's imports and exports – around 11 billion tons of goods – at sea at any given time, the closure of major trade routes due to a geopolitical conflict is one of the greatest threats to the resources needed for a resilient economy," Lloyd's said.

  • October 9, 2024

Singapore seen keeping monetary policy unchanged as inflation risks linger

Singapore's central bank is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged next week and hold off easing settings amid inflation and growth uncertainties caused by geopolitical tensions. Of the 10 analysts polled by Reuters, nine expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to hold off making changes to its policy at the scheduled review next Monday. "Oil prices have climbed from recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while extreme weather conditions are still holding sway over food prices, which remain above pre-pandemic levels," said Moody’s Analytics economist Denise Cheok.

  • October 9, 2024

Fitch says decarbonisation of world economy progressing far too slowly

Decarbonisation of the global economy is progressing too slowly and while there has been improvement among big developed economies, emerging markets have failed to make reductions, Fitch Ratings warned in a report published on Wednesday. World CO2 emissions rose by 1.8% last year compared to world gross domestic product growth of 2.9%, the report said. Fitch noted that while emissions from 10 developed economies fell to their lowest since 1970, emerging markets as a whole failed to make any progress towards decarbonisation -- with CO2 emissions and GDP of 10 emerging markets tracked by Fitch increasing by 4.7% last year.

  • October 9, 2024

Geopolitical risk premium in oil market slips slightly, Goldman Sachs says

Oil prices steadied in Asian trading as traders weighed developments in the Middle East conflict against continued bearish expectations for demand. Goldman Sachs still expects a peak upside of $10-$20 per barrel for Brent in the case of disruptions in Iranian production as the development of the conflict remains uncertain. The call options implied volatility skew jumped to mid-April levels last week, while Brent implied volatility surged above its model-implied fair value for the first time this year, Goldman said.

  • October 9, 2024

New Zealand Steps Up Pace of Rate Cuts as Economy Weakens

(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s central bank cut interest rates by half a percentage point, stepping up the pace of easing as policymakers become more concerned about the economic slowdown.Most Read from BloombergUrban Heat Stress Is Another Disparity in the World’s Most Unequal NationFrom Cleveland to Chicago, NFL Teams Dream of Domed StadiumsSingapore Ends 181 Years of Horse Racing to Make Way for HomesChicago’s $1 Billion Budget Hole Exacerbated by School TurmoilShould Evictions Be Banned After

  • October 9, 2024

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Sept rate cut was 'timely'

"It was timely and consistent" with the Fed's two mandates of attaining 2% inflation and maximum employment, Jefferson said at Davidson College in North Carolina. The Fed's success in meeting the first mandate by bringing down inflation, he said, allowed the U.S. central bank "to pay increased attention to the other side of the mandate." Jefferson voted in September with the majority of his colleagues to reduce the Fed's policy rate, marking a turning point in what had been a two-year battle against inflation that took U.S. borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades.